As is the thesis of this stack, global war is nothing new to the decade. It is in our opinion that the latest global conflict is well into its 6th-8th year. In fact, the economic system of global capitalism has likely been in decline for more than a decade. These things have their expiration date. The latest news cycle around the Strait of Hormuz is only part of the story of this global information and trade network (markets are information systems). The efficiency on globalism has provided cheap imports, low rates, strong dollar and efficient, just-in-time delivery for our US markets. Expect this to deteriorate from here. Consider the following map as a simple illustration. How will the global natural resources move from where they are produced to where they are consumed? How will we know when those shifts are taking place? What are the impacts on commodities and transportation prices?

1. US is making a move or has already gained control of the Panama, Gibraltar and Malaccan choke points. They are likely to hassle the BRICS parties to some extent. This puts pressure on capesize and VLCC transport rates (bullish).

2. Bab el-Mandeb (Houti infamy) and Strait of Hormuz are at a transportation stalemate. These routes are currently uninsurable. This will require the insurance market to adjust to get things moving in the private sector.

3. Pressure is on Chinese energy imports. Of the 40% reliance on middle east, can it be made up in Russia or Brazil? Will some ME exports move? More pressure on VLCC (bullish). Some of the energy import deficits will need to be made up in the form of Australian thermal coal.

**Capesize refers to the largest dry bulk class of ship, VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) refers to the largest crude tanker. These ships are too large for the two major canal passages.

The following represents our 3-12 month forward expectations of the various sectors we invest in. This is not investment advice. Do your own DD.

Precious Metals

1. Look for a bottom as early as mid may. (fig1)

2. High quality mining stocks should be bought on 200dma if you can get them (if not, then near short term bottom levels)

3. If these don’t suffice buy the breakout of the short-term triangle structure in the metals.

PM Summary

This was always going to be a break for precious metals following a historic run. We have a few time benchmarks to measure with. First, while the breakout of war and political disruption would logically signal demand for gold, this is typically seen on a lag of 3 months or so. This puts the breakout to late May. Second, January’s volatility takes time to burn off (especially silver). Extended targets suggested $90 was extremely optimistic and the market eviscerated those levels. Enter bull market consolidation periods. These are usually a period of 3-4 months. This brings us to May. The entry prices we’ve been waiting for are right around the corner.

PM Charts

Gold Short Term

Gold Long Term

Silver Short Term

Silver Long Term

Most readers are likely aware of “the largest cup and handle in capital markets history”. This pattern projects $550/oz price target for silver. That seems outlandish, by even the most “fiat” among us. None-the-less, you will likely hear much higher targets in the coming years. BOA has projected as high as $300 for the year (don’t trust them it’s just gold to silver ratio supported): https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insight/bank-of-america-projects-silver-could-hit-309-by-2026/gm-GM69F78440

Mining Stocks

Use the major indexes and ETFs to set manage your tradingview alerts. This can be helpful if you have alert limits.

Conventional Energy (Oil, Gas and Coal)

Energy Summary

• The latest Iran conflict exposes the US inability to provide necessary protection for OPEC states. While BRICS nations have been exchanging oil in currencies other than dollars, this marks a major milestone in the end of the petrodollar.

• breaking UAE leaves OPEC - OPEC was the creation of the petrodollar era. This is the latest sign of the end of the petrodollar. The forward gulf bases future is in doubt. You can expect western spin, but this is the old-world hegemonic power deconstructing as part of a hegemonic reset.

• Domestic oil and gas was breaking out before the Iran war did (fig5). We read this as long term move for higher prices, inflation and back-filling of data center (unplanned) energy demand.

Short Term Price Crude

Long Term Price Crude

While oil and gasoline prices may temporarily spike much higher, our bull case valuation numbers won’t be higher than $90 per barrel for the purpose of NAV forecasts. Term delivery prices are much more indicative of producer prices in terms of relative movement.

Energy Stocks

Thermal Coal

After a bearish few weeks, we are getting a bounce off of the 200 day MA. This price action is heavily covered in Stan Weinstein. This looks to be the very early stages of a cyclical bull in COAL. A break of the $150 level on New Castle could be quite impressive. This is still several months away at minimum.

Coal Stocks

For most investors the COAL etf will be the play for a reasonable allocation. As with oil, the trend is our friend in bull markets. Add positions confidently on dips.

I cringed.

The general public has almost not business in equity markets. This is entirely the world of Alan Greenspan. But, that is an article for another day…

The problem with headlines and tropes are primarily that they lack context. They are meant to invoke what Howard Marks calls “a first level idea” that was already in your head (usually as the result of propaganda). What is a first level idea? It’s the idea that stops with the content proposed. Generally, this is something that originates from the operating system of public discourse. It’s never meant for the audience to ask the second question… “why am I seeing this headline, overhearing this phonecall or getting my feed clogged with this… now?” “How does the slogan expect me to respond… emotionally?”

This question is what Howard Marks calls Second Level Thinking (one of his “most important things”). Let’s examine a few examples you may have seen lately…

• The crash is just beginning

• The reign of the US dollar is over

• This time is different

• This feels a lot like Feb 2020

• Israel are God’s chosen people

There are two things I would never say when referring to the market, “get out” or “its time” - Howard Marks

Howard Marks is no fan of technical analysis and he doesn’t promote timing tops and bottoms. His would agree with the neighbors trope… time in the market is more important, but specifically time in quality undervalued assets. The latest global conflict shouldn’t be a signal to get ALL OUT or ALL IN, but to re-calibrate your portfolio.

DON’T HOLD CRAPPY OVERPRICED ASSETS, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEM MUSIC STOPS PLAYING. (looks at mag7, AI stocks and emerging technology)

What to Expect Near Term

The media is reporting the latest events as a 4th generation war. The reality is it that what you see on the screen is propaganda. The war is happening on the screen in the room with you and especially in your own mind and emotions. This is a war of the 5th generation. You must apply second level thinking of the information you have will cause you to do the wrong action. This is a feature of the system, not a flaw.

Precious Metals

Gold likely to form a bearish wedge or IH&S over the next several weeks. But we are very close to the end of the correction… Jordan Roy Byrne has some great work on this.

• Gold pullback levels to $4300 (hit at publishing) initially will ultimate floor at $3500. Likely to resume a move 8-10k as part of second leg of the broader bull market.

• Silver levels $62 (hit at publishing) to ultimate floor of $50. Resumption of a similar move as gold with $200 as a target.

• I expect the next leg of the precious metals bull market to be 24 months.

(link to the whip article)

Best plays in the second leg of the gold bull market will be the miners. Initially, here we are looking at option spread entries on Gold Majors. Names like , , are to be watched. Look for these names along with to bottom first. Possibly in the next few weeks.

Energy

Chasing the current oil price on the fear trade could prove unfruitful. The increase in energy prices are demand driven, not supply driven. While the impact on gulf state infrastructure and supply from that part of the world in not yet known, energy was initially responding to demand coming online from what is roughly a +15% increase from technology and data centers (domestically). This had been a relatively quiet breakout prior to the Iran attack. Doomberg has more to say about this in this interview:

We are expecting a retracement in both Brent and WTI once the latest kinetic conflict reaches and exhaustion point… ask those second level questions and that point looks to be less than 2 weeks away.

Look for $AKERBP to show the most retracement of recent gains. Big US oil will be next. We don’t expect major corrective impacts from AECO or US natural gas. These pullbacks should offer some attractive re-entry opportunity on the commodity accelerator spread trades.

The shocks we’ve seen in energy will likely be back-filled by thermal coal in the very near term $WHC.AX $YAL.AX $NHC.AX (to name a few). Large bulk shippers should benefit as well. and .

200DMAs being hit everywhere in the gold and uranium miners space. Lots more to talk about, but extremely time sensitive… remember the most important thing, second level thinking.

Interested in the commodity accelerator plan and option agent? Try a free trial now through May 1, 2026.

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Common Questions & Answers

• Q1: Should I buy calls or sell puts? (decision matrix)

• Q2: How to know when to exit? (50% rule explained)

• Q3: I’m down 40%—should I double down? (why not!)

• Q4: How many times should I roll? (guidelines)

• Q5: What if IV spikes when I enter? (vega impact)

Options Guide

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You don’t need to search long to discover many financial advisory articles recommend opening a Roth (perhaps for multiple family members) and contributing every year as finances allow. This is good advice. I need not illustrate the difference between 20% growth tax free and 20% growth tax deferred can net you. In spite of the latest rumor from the Whitehouse, if you are a US citizen taxes are in your future. Best deal with it now.

Front Door Funding

The limits…

Note that the Trad, SEP and Simple are pretax. 401ks are generally offered in either pre or post tax form (contribute to both types if you can). Roth is post tax, meaning all contributions and distributions after 59.5 are tax free. Contributions can be withdrawn dollar for dollar. Most will advise you not to do this. I am not most people. You can beat the market. If the front door was the only way in, that advice would be pretty universal.

With the front door, high income earners can’t contribute at all!

Conversion Funding

The alternate route… limited only by amount of taxes you are willing to incur that year.

Updated: Roll Your 401k, 403b First

If you have a pretax portion of 401k or 403b, you are going to request a rollover to Traditional IRA once your employment status changes with the sponsoring employee. There is another set of strategies here to bring 401k into self managed status, but I won’t go in depth here. Beyond terminations and retirement, there are other employment options that unlock this if it is a fairly highly vested asset from many years of employment. If you don’t plan to leave your current employer but would like to begin self management, contact the plan custodian directly and ask if you can switch to “self directed status” or in-service rollover. Always ask before asking the career altering questions.

Once full time status is changed, the plan sponsor will give you the opportunity to initiate a rollover to traditional ira. Rollover in kind will likely be an option. With this method you won’t have to liquidate your positions on the transaction date. You can specify your existing traditional IRA accounts for rollover in whole or in part. The execution does take longer than a regular brokerage transfer, but I found it to be seamless. From here, you are set up to manage the strategy as follows…

Assets In Kind… The Tax Reduction Jet Fuel

There are many reasons to appreciate lower prices, but this one you may not yet have realized!

If you know what you are doing, volatility can shelter your future tax burden! Of course, that comes with high degree of conviction that the price of the assets you own inevitably must go higher.

What is conversion “in kind”? Simply put, this means the broker will transfer the stocks, bonds, options or possibly even crypto from the pretax basis (TRAD) to the post tax basis (ROTH) assessing the tax on an ordinary income basis on the evening the transfer is initiated (you must initiate in before 3 PM est).

Illustration - The Rick Rule Paladin Scenario

Many of you likely have heard the legendary story of Rick Rule’s 100 bagger trade in $PDN.AX (Paladin) during the last Uranium bull market cycle. Rick is always quick to remind the listener his initial purchase price of $.10 AU dropped below $.01 AU (where he bought more). There part everyone remembers… Rick eventually sold a portion of his holdings for $10 AU, a 100 bagger! There are a few things that were present in Ricks story that need to be present in your scenario to make this work.

1. Rick had done significant research and had high conviction that the market was mispriced at $.10 and even more-so at $.01. You need to have that conviction level about the asset you intend to convert.

2. Because you can’t precisely time tops and bottoms you should consider a DCA approach similar to any other trade.

3. You need to have an idea what you current year tax exposure is. This won’t necessarily be advantageous if you are already in the highest tax bracket for ordinary income. Do the arithmetic!

4. You need to have a good idea what the stock is actually worth to sell for a significant profit (trade)

5. You need a long time horizon. This is generally true for IRA investments.

A Scenario Case Study

• Suppose you also bought Paladin at $.10 for total investment of $10,000.

• The stock proceeded to make its way down and you executed this conversion for average basis of $.02 ($2,000)

• You exited the trade near the top for a DCA sale price of $6 per share. ($600,000)

Let’s take a look at the impact on your tax liability via 3 scenarios. You did this solely in a TRAD, solely in a brokerage account and the ROTH conversion path.

Here we have chosen an extreme example to illustrate. While we don’t condone an investment behavior of HOLDing, those who intend to ride volatility for the long run, may have this opportunity in markets in the future (crypto).

How many Bitcoin HODLers will convert and tax shelter their long term, high conviction assets should a dip into the 30s occur. This could actually be the opportunity of a lifetime if the long term bullish thesis occurs. Note: 5GF does not endorsing long term conviction on BTC. DYODD.

What Is Your Plan During A Deep Stage 4 Scenario?

It’s important to set up these account layers in advance of the market moves. Sometimes it can take weeks (see 401k rollovers) to establish the accounts and fund them.

Think About Risk Profile of Pretax IRA

Conventional advisory thinking suggests to protect your Roth from risky assets. You only get 7-8k a year to add to it. If you lose that money, it will be challenging rebuild. This isn’t the case with the conversion scenario. You are dipping the 7-8k annual front door funds.

There is opportunity to speculate in pretax IRAs. If you are wrong and lose money, its pretax money. If you are right and experience a volatile downturn, add it to the ROTH balance, and catch the gains on the way up. To better understand bull and bear market analysis, see my stage analysis market model article:

If you had done one of these kinds of maneuvers in or or countless other survivors of the busts, you would virtually insulate yourself from the enormous capital gain burden. I was you that put the money at risk, did the research, tolerated the downturns. Turn the downturns into additional torque. Prepare to convert!

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All investments carry risk, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Roth IRS: https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/roth-iras

Trad IRS: https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/traditional-iras

Note: Many retires may have a mix of pre and post tax retirement from the Roth 401k and so on. This introduces the “pro-rata” rule: https://www.sdocpa.com/pro-rata-rule/ This rule will lower the tax burden on the scenario you see above. Just know, its not first in last out, or pick and choose to move the post tax items first. Disclaimer: where Pro-rata rule applies; consult tax pro or financial advisor.

Be sure and check out the back-testing notes:

In the example video I set up a spread for $7.75 or single position price of $775. Alternatively, suppose you bought 100 shares at current price of $23.80 for $2380.

I suppose the price goes to $32.50. The net profit of the full share position would be $870. The net profit of the spread I estimate at $1000.

For the downside I estimate I would stop the trade around $18.50 or so. The stock loss would be $530. The spread loss would be right around the same amount of $530.

Conclusion

For the sake of risk management you can assume 1 position roughly equals 100 shares. This particular trade offered an attractive option price and should yield a higher upside the 100 shares of the stock alone. DYODD!

Use my Wisesheets affiliate link: https://affiliates.wisesheets.io/signup?campaign=5th-Generation-Finance

Conventional Options illustration of this approach can be found here:

What if we used this method in the commodity accelerator and similar setups? Here are the results:

Benefits:

1. No need to roll winning trades up when they are in the money. Simpler. No extra commissions.

2. Simple horizontal trade stops and targets work to dictate entries and exits.

3. Lower downside risk as percent of capital.

4. Fewer contracts (10-15% as many) mean less bid/ask slippage and loss

5. Fewer setup steps

Disadvantages:

1. Less potential profit per $ of premium.

2. The upward sloping stop on spread can be advantageous and “fit the chart”

3. Less total VaR. There is always potential for nearly 100% loss in crash scenarios.

4. Extrinsic ratio calc isn’t straight forward without a spreadsheet calculator tool. Can be tricking to find the right match of contracts

5. Less liquid in deep in the money options. Can be harder to find setups.

What does this mean?

It means the rest of this bull journey is… speculative… arithmetically speaking. No more, “buy silver for $25 and wait for markets to realize they might want some to keep making stuff”. That was the easy money. Be prepared to trim the highs and nibble on the lows. If the last two weeks are any indication, its a lot more work… and a lot more risk.

Where is the lower emotional capital investment now?

If you missed it earlier this week coal is on the list:

The short answer… cheap (clean) energy. That’s nuclear, that’s especially natural gas. Consider $BTC , , silver, gold, PGMs over the last week. Volatility is 6-8X. Now look at , , , … apparently missed the systemic failure memo!

Charts that have tremendous potential for “easy money”…

Oil and Gas

$BIR.TX

$TOU.TX

- On stuff

- Cup and Handle #2

$ARX.TX - Roughest chart of the bunch but today’s 10% drop brought them into about an 8 multiple. Not accounting for much higher pricing.

- royalties, beaten up

- IH&S situation.

Uranium

$SRUUF Textbook IH&S entry.

- Backtest of its trend line.

short report rejected off the long term trend support.

$AEU.AX - Atomic Eagle (formerly Goviex)

Base Metals

- Range Global

- hoping for a retest to the neckline. Am I too greedy?

First things first, geography. Aussie thermal coal is primarily produced in Queensland and New South Wales. It’s destination is Asia, particularly south east. It moves there via Capsize dry bulk vessels. Remember that later as we take in the full breadth. First the map:

The pure plays are covered in more depth in the primary article. Lets just review the charts. First the futures market:

We are just breaking above water on Newcastle coal. This chart has a long way to go from an incredible base. Thermal coal is cheap!

Transportation

Demand for dry bulk shipping rates has already printed a signal:

Remember capsize. The companies with the largest capsize exposure happen to be , and

Right at the downtrend!

Midway through an IH&S!

Exactly as but slightly more pronounced!

The Miners

All of these stocks trade primarily on the ASX, so evening session will tell the tale.

Massive bull flag on WHC.AX being confirmed. We are adding positions here.

Adding small positions with lower time frames and the market breadth. Not a big breakout yet!

is very similar to the transportation companies. $4.75 AU would be compelling. This may be the week.

What To Expect From A Bull Market (Asian Coal)

A fully confirmed bull market suggests an equal weighted portfolio of the above should return 250-400% with 6-8% yields over 18-24 months from a resumed breakout! This is speaking strictly from the chart setups and historic profit sharing of these companies. One thing is for sure, we are still very early.

Other Thermal Markets

is getting more attractive. $185 is a desirable price, but we might need to start positioning here.

(Formerly Consol) is experiencing a backtest here. We are accumulating at these levels

with an attractive pullback. Might add to some current positions.

, still a very new fund. Back-testing the issuance levels. IH&S in play. Given the evidence so far, I would consider this fund to play out like a basket of the above. Buy COAL to keep in simple.

Limit sell XOM 120/135 Call spread at $11.50

Entry: $3.51 (9/29/25)

Exit: $11.51 (1/27/26)

Profit: $8

Gain: 228%

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I was filled this morning with the following. We are taking full 165% profit off, leaving only little less than initial capital because the trade is at near term resistance.

Congratulations!

This roll trade was the option equivalent of “cut the position by half”. I don’t see 2021 resistance holding this move back, but a consolidation to about +20% of 200 dma seems likely. I any case, we have strong breakdown in the dollar in favor of a breakout here. New positions should wait for the breakout and short term back test of the 95 area. A 100/110 spread could be a great setup provided we have breakout confirmation. Stay ready.

$DXY - we are losing the 10+ year trend line… 90s is likely very soon. Bullish oil, commodities, , etc.

$XAG - WAAY over its skis. You can see the angle of the last bull measured move and how far ahead of it we are. Accept market generosity. For me that’s trim another slice.

How much precedent is there for this parabolic move? None. Below is the distance from the moving average (price momentum). This is distance from 200 DMA. We have exceeded the Hunt brothers event… I repeat! This is the largest un-disrupted move on record!

200WMA… Hunt Brothers still has it beat. But focus on the un-disrupted move

Opens into overhead resistance

- all time high 200WMA resistance.

- 10-20% trim for me at $20. Option spreads coming off.

Closing the massive 3 roll trade for +600%. at overhead.

…just 3 examples. You can find similar on almost any of these stocks. Stay humble!

Where to shop. My list this week:

Oil and Gas

- adding a bit on this move. Use PBR.A.

- new position… in the process of a breakout.

Uranium

- Head and Shoulders… target $21

Begining to outperform SPUT.

$SYHBF - Triangle Break out… continue to add

Even better against futures:

$LMRXF - Triangle Break out… add

- getting close to an starter!

$URNM/UX1! - Breaking out… sell SPUT buy miners

Sprott has massive surplus… they will bid up the price very soon. What you see in silver now, you will see in Uranium soon. Focus on where the puck is going!

If you aren’t already a member, join and you will receive the regular alerts for trade management. Cheers!

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Roll Notification

This profit represents 63%! The 25-35 spread offers a better position for the remainder of this expiration period.

UPDATE »»

Obviously the next trade could fail on double top scenario. But we lock in profits thus far.

New Position…

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While there are reasons to hold silver and gold an these elevated prices, short to midterm inflation hedge or speculative opportunities are no longer one of them. It’s time to look to other asset classes and “hard money” derivatives. What are the current risks with owning gold, silver and other PMs?

1. heavily overbought pricing in the short term - short term bias is to the downside. When will that start? $95, $100, $150? I have no idea and anyone else that claims to is a liar. Current physical markets are structural supply problems with bullion banks meting deliverable demand. The thing with banking history is this… rules get changed in the middle of the night.

2. high daily volatility - no one wants to have a retired client open their portfolio after a -6% silver day. Those days are coming. Forget the recent 30-50% moves. Short term volatility cares emotional overhead when dealing with client expectations.

Wouldn’t it be nice to reset the pattern back to $26?

Markets are discounting mechanisms. Stock markets. Bond markets. Currency markets.

Emerging markets have been fully (150%) discounted for currency risk for some time. This is a currency issue. It’s the US and first world bond markets that will experience market discounting cycle over the next few years. That is what we believe gold and silver and signaling to this point.

We have nearly fully deployed to from mostly silver sales (5% is full deployment to a fund like this). I covered this fund in depth here. It’s still relatively cheap.

ETFs and other funds create a certain complexity when tracking against level one indexes. I have created a list of the correlative components I use to track the fund.

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